A U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is very likely very soon. Here are four reasons why I say that: 1. A military attack on Iran has been an Israeli demand for at least fifteen years, in active preparation by the U.S. and Israel for at least six years, and was already ordered
There Will Never Be a Better Time for Israel to Strike in Iran
Benny Morris
Nov 1, 2023 12:06 am IST
For 20 years Iran has been harming Israel and Western interests in the Middle East – as well as other regions – with absolute impunity. It does this by means of proxies that include Hezbollah members, Houthis and Iraqi Shi’ite Muslims. And if there is an Israeli or Western response, it is the proxies that pay the price, not Iran or the Iranians.
There is an opportunity now to put an end to this.
The last proxy, Hamas, has dealt Israel a devastating blow. Hamas was funded, armed and trained by Iran, and Iranians may even have helped organize and direct the October 7 invasion of Israel. Israel should exact a price from Iran for this, a painful price, and immediately.
For example, it’s possible to destroy Iranian planes that land at the Aleppo and Damascus airports, loaded with weapons (something Israel has refrained from doing, in favor of destroying the arms shipments after they are unloaded from the planes), or to strike Iranian cargo ships carrying arms before they enter the port of Beirut, Latakia or Tartus.
On the Lebanese border, Israel has made do for now with localized strikes on Hezbollah when the organization fires on communities and army positions on the northern border. Hezbollah is clearly using this tactic on the orders, or the advice, of Iran. Israel has for now decided to show restraint while at the same time deploying divisions along the border in the event of an escalation.
Israel must state publicly that if the Shi’ite organization shifts to an all-out war, Israel will bomb Iran itself, first and foremost Tehran and its nuclear installations. Such an announcement may deter Iran and Hezbollah from intervening with full force in Israel’s war with Hamas. But if Iran does choose to join the campaign, either directly or through Hezbollah, Israel must take advantage of the opportunity to destroy, to the best of its ability, the Iranian nuclear enterprise and undermine the Iranian regime and its military units, above all the Revolutionary Guards (which is responsible for attacks on Israel and on Jewish communities around the world in recent decades).
Israel has stores of ballistic missiles that can reach targets in Iran and submarines carrying precision-guided cruise missiles. It also has an air force with mid-air refueling planes (advanced models of which the United States should be pressured to supply to Israel, immediately) capable of operating in the skies of Iran, if Israel receives tacit or official overflight permission from the intervening countries (Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia).
It is possible – there is no certainty about this – that Washington would oppose a future Israeli action against Iran on Iranian territory, fearing that such an attack will drag the United States into the military maelstrom that would result. But for Israel, destroying Iran’s nuclear program is a supreme interest; an American veto must be rejected. (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should have acted back in 2010-12, but he desisted out of fear, just as he was afraid to launch a preemptive attack on Hamas before the organization was able to reach its current capabilities.)
The timing will never be better than it is now; Joe Biden is the most pro-Israel U.S. president since Bill Clinton. It is possible that such an attack, especially if it succeeds, would even please Washington.
As far as is known, Iran does not have advanced missile and aircraft interception capabilities, while Israel does. It is possible that in the near future the Iranians will be able to reach parity in these capabilities, and if Israel does not act in the coming months it will miss the current moment of superiority.
Western diplomacy and the use of economic sanctions in recent decades to stop Iran’s nuclear program have not succeeded, and the only way remaining to stop Tehran’s advance to nuclear bombs is a military strike. If this opportunity is missed, in the not too distant future Israel will have to live with a nuclear Iran, and “may Allah have mercy.”
In today’s Haaretz Israeli newspaper.
There Will Never Be a Better Time for Israel to Strike in Iran
Benny Morris
Nov 1, 2023 12:06 am IST
For 20 years Iran has been harming Israel and Western interests in the Middle East – as well as other regions – with absolute impunity. It does this by means of proxies that include Hezbollah members, Houthis and Iraqi Shi’ite Muslims. And if there is an Israeli or Western response, it is the proxies that pay the price, not Iran or the Iranians.
There is an opportunity now to put an end to this.
The last proxy, Hamas, has dealt Israel a devastating blow. Hamas was funded, armed and trained by Iran, and Iranians may even have helped organize and direct the October 7 invasion of Israel. Israel should exact a price from Iran for this, a painful price, and immediately.
For example, it’s possible to destroy Iranian planes that land at the Aleppo and Damascus airports, loaded with weapons (something Israel has refrained from doing, in favor of destroying the arms shipments after they are unloaded from the planes), or to strike Iranian cargo ships carrying arms before they enter the port of Beirut, Latakia or Tartus.
On the Lebanese border, Israel has made do for now with localized strikes on Hezbollah when the organization fires on communities and army positions on the northern border. Hezbollah is clearly using this tactic on the orders, or the advice, of Iran. Israel has for now decided to show restraint while at the same time deploying divisions along the border in the event of an escalation.
Israel must state publicly that if the Shi’ite organization shifts to an all-out war, Israel will bomb Iran itself, first and foremost Tehran and its nuclear installations. Such an announcement may deter Iran and Hezbollah from intervening with full force in Israel’s war with Hamas. But if Iran does choose to join the campaign, either directly or through Hezbollah, Israel must take advantage of the opportunity to destroy, to the best of its ability, the Iranian nuclear enterprise and undermine the Iranian regime and its military units, above all the Revolutionary Guards (which is responsible for attacks on Israel and on Jewish communities around the world in recent decades).
Israel has stores of ballistic missiles that can reach targets in Iran and submarines carrying precision-guided cruise missiles. It also has an air force with mid-air refueling planes (advanced models of which the United States should be pressured to supply to Israel, immediately) capable of operating in the skies of Iran, if Israel receives tacit or official overflight permission from the intervening countries (Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia).
It is possible – there is no certainty about this – that Washington would oppose a future Israeli action against Iran on Iranian territory, fearing that such an attack will drag the United States into the military maelstrom that would result. But for Israel, destroying Iran’s nuclear program is a supreme interest; an American veto must be rejected. (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should have acted back in 2010-12, but he desisted out of fear, just as he was afraid to launch a preemptive attack on Hamas before the organization was able to reach its current capabilities.)
The timing will never be better than it is now; Joe Biden is the most pro-Israel U.S. president since Bill Clinton. It is possible that such an attack, especially if it succeeds, would even please Washington.
As far as is known, Iran does not have advanced missile and aircraft interception capabilities, while Israel does. It is possible that in the near future the Iranians will be able to reach parity in these capabilities, and if Israel does not act in the coming months it will miss the current moment of superiority.
Western diplomacy and the use of economic sanctions in recent decades to stop Iran’s nuclear program have not succeeded, and the only way remaining to stop Tehran’s advance to nuclear bombs is a military strike. If this opportunity is missed, in the not too distant future Israel will have to live with a nuclear Iran, and “may Allah have mercy.”
Prof. Benny Morris is a historian.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-11-01/ty-article-opinion/.premium/there-will-never-be-a-better-time-for-israel-to-strike-in-iran/0000018b-8758-df47-a3df-ff592b2b0000
Brilliant analysis Jim , thanks.