Ceasefire Prospects and Trump Pressure

Interview and Analysis

Here’s my Monday, January 13th appearance on Press TV, discussing prospects for a Gaza ceasefire. This was before the news about Trump’s emissary’s role in pressuring Netanyahu, so I talked about it as a way for Biden to get a "win” on his way out. I was also very skeptical of the prospect of any “ceasefire” working out.

After a few days of news on this, from Israeli and Western sources, I would say the following:

First, we must acknowledge that Trump and his incoming Mideast envoy, Steve Witkof do seem to have played a key role in getting Netanyahu to announce Israel’s agreement to the ceasefire. If Israeli media like Haaretz and Channel 14 are to be believed, Bibi and his associates are apoplectic about Trump’s pressure, which they see as a betrayal.

Of course, since the deal is under the auspices of the Biden administration, Joe is claiming credit for it, saying it’s the very same deal that Biden put on the table last May (if not before). Biden does not seem to realize how he’s daming himself with that argument, since it means he could have, as Trump now has, forced Israel to announce acceptance of the ceasefire at any time, possibly stopping the slaughter. (There’s no question it was Israel that “prevent[ed] this deal from going ahead, time after time,” as Ben-Gvir has proudly admitted.)

So—most important for Americans to understand—the United States, under the Biden administration, was responsible for abetting—for deliberately refusing to stop—the ongoing destruction of homes, hospitals, schools, and civic infrastructure, and the murder of doctors, teachers, journalists, and tens of thousands of children. Also necessary for everyone, and difficult for many, to acknowledge is that Donald Trump, for whatever reason, was willing to exercise American power over Israel in a way that Biden did not do, and Kamala would not have done. For whatever it’s ultimately worth, today’s situation of Israel accepting a ceasefire, which has prompted celebrations in Gaza and throughout the Palestinian lands, is down to Donald Trump. For Gaza today, Biden, Kamala, and the Democrats were no lesser evil.

But, please, let’s be serious about what has been accomplished. Beware premature celebration. There is no ceasefire. There is just an announcement. Even if accepted by Israel, the ceasefire won’t begin for three more days, during which Israel will ramp up the destruction and killing in Gaza. Right now, Israel has not accepted the ceasefire deal. As I write, “Netanyahu’s office says the Israeli security cabinet has delayed its planned meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.” We’ve seen this play before—Biden announcing that Israel has accepted a ceasefire, only for Israel to say “Hold on a minute…”

Even if the Israeli cabinet does approve the deal—more likely now, because of the Trump pressure—what will that actually mean in practice? As I said in the Press TV interview, there’s a ceasefire in Lebanon. How is Israel respecting that? Who’s going to enforce this one? Even during the initial 42-day ceasefire, who’s going to stop Israel from blowing up a building or dropping a bomb here or there, ‘cause Hamas, just as it’s now doing in Lebanon?

Furthermore, the ceasefire deal itself is to be implemented in stages. There’s a fair chance of getting through the first stage, involving a partial exchange of hostages/prisoners. But the subsequent stages that call for a permanent ceasefire, significant humanitarian and reconstruction aid, and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza? That would be a clear victory for Hamas. Who thinks Israel will accept that?

I do not believe for a second that, even if approved by Israel, this ceasefire deal will get beyond the first stage. Israel will never agree to withdraw from, relinquish control of, or cease its ethnic cleansing of, Gaza. Israel would have to—and, as we see, could by the U.S. president—be forced to do that.

Will Donald Trump, once he is the president and has the responsibility and power, force the Israelis not just to talk, but to act, in a way that renounces their “Greater Israel” ethnic cleansing project for Gaza? The Donald Trump who filled his cabinet with fanatical Zionists? Who gave free rein to his Zionist donors and is right now likely getting reminder calls from Miriam? I don’t believe that for a second.

Sure, I could be wrong. I would not have thought Trump would do what he just did. We’ve learned again that Trump is erratic and unpredictable, in ways that often seriously discomfit the establishment he is part of. He says and does shit a president is not supposed to. I offer again the example of his contradictory moves on Iran during his first term, culminating in ordering a military strike on Iran and then calling it off with ten minutes to go, infuriating everyone from John Bolton to Lindsey Graham.

Trump wants what’s good for him. Unlike many other establishment politicians, Trump doesn’t have a principled dedication to Zionism, and he may want not to be stuck with Israel’s nasty project in Gaza. If he were to force Israel to forgo that project and end the colonial slaughter, which would require resisting all the enormous pressure from the deepest of Deep State Zionist elements, he would deserve credit for one of the most courageous and progressive acts of state in decades,

But he won’t. Because he’s too tied to those Zionist elements. And because he’d be assassinated if he tried.

My bet is that any ceasefire that may start next week will be short, that, with the help of the Trump administration, Israel will continue to destroy, occupy, and control everything that goes in and out of Gaza, and that, barring military defeat in some unforeseeable way, there will be “humanitarian emigration” of Palestinian Arabs and nobody living in (at least) northern Gaza a year from now but Israeli Jewish settlers.

I think there will also be the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran that Netanyahu has been demanding for over 15 years, consistent with the first Trump administration’s pact with Israel “to take on Iran”—an agreement Israel considered of “far greater impact” even than Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli’s capital.

The Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza will not be stopped by Donald Trump or by a “ceasefire,” but by the military defeat, or at least devastation, that may come from such an attack on Iran, the disillusionment and degradation of the Israeli army in the face of growing numbers of enraged and committed Hamas fighters, the damage to the Israeli economy from Yemeni and Hezbollah rockets and constant warfare, and the capitulatory emigration of Israeli Jews.

I hope I’m wrong, but, as I say in the interview,, Color me skeptical.

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